What Are the Real Odds of Winning the Lottery & Prizes?
Hearing about a massive jackpot or a smaller raffle prize keeps the idea of a win alive for millions of Lottery players across the UK each week.
But what really happens if you play? How likely is it to match those all-important numbers, and what are the chances of different prizes?
Read on for a clear look at how lottery odds work, how prizes are set, and what those numbers mean for an everyday player.
How Do Lottery Odds Actually Work?
Lottery odds describe the chance that a particular set of numbers will be drawn. They are worked out using combinations, which simply count how many different number sets are possible based on the game’s format.
Take the UK National Lottery Lotto. You pick six numbers from 59. The number of possible six-number combinations from that pool is huge, which is why the odds of matching all six are about 1 in 45 million. That figure comes directly from the total number of ways those six numbers can be chosen.
EuroMillions follows a two-pool format. You pick five numbers from 1 to 50, then two Lucky Stars from 1 to 12. Because you must be right across both pools, the jackpot odds are much longer at roughly 1 in 139 million.
Scratchcards and online instant win games work differently. Their odds are set by the game design and printed in the rules or info section, so you can check them before you take part.
Each draw is independent, and the probabilities do not change from one draw to the next. Playing more often does not alter the underlying maths. Players should always remember to gamble responsibly and within their means- never wager more than you can afford to lose.
What Are the Chances of Winning the Jackpot?
As noted above, Lotto’s setup leads to jackpot odds of about 1 in 45 million. EuroMillions, with two number pools, sits at around 1 in 139 million for the top prize.
Jackpots can build through rollovers when there is no winner, and some games set caps or special conditions once they reach certain levels. For example, when a cap is reached or a special event draw occurs, extra funds may be directed to lower prize tiers, increasing those payouts for that specific draw. The details vary by game and are shown in the rules.
Smaller lottery formats and some online draws typically offer better jackpot odds, but the top prizes are lower. If you are comparing games, the quickest way to judge the difficulty of the jackpot is to look at how many numbers must be matched and how many balls are in each pool.
How Likely Are Smaller Lottery Prizes?
Smaller prizes are far more common than jackpots, but the exact chances depend on the prize tier and game rules.
In UK Lotto, you can win a free Lucky Dip by matching two main numbers, with odds of roughly 1 in 10. Matching three main numbers pays a fixed cash prize, at about 1 in 97. Higher tiers, such as four or five matches, become less likely but pay more. These fixed amounts and the odds for each tier are shown in the official prize table and may be adjusted for special event draws.
EuroMillions also pays for lower-tier outcomes, starting from two main numbers. The chances are around 1 in 22 for that entry-level prize, with additional tiers for combinations like three main numbers, or main numbers plus Lucky Stars. Because there are more tiers and two number pools, the distribution of prizes is broader, and the odds vary across the table.
Scratchcards and instant win games publish “odds of winning any prize,” often somewhere between about 1 in 3 and 1 in 5 depending on the game. That figure covers prizes of all sizes combined, so while a win might occur fairly often, most of those wins are on the smaller end. The paytable shows the mix of prize sizes.
Checking the prize table before you play could give a realistic sense of how frequently smaller returns occur and what they are typically worth.
Lottery Odds Compared to Other Games
Lottery jackpots are designed to be hard to hit. By contrast, many other games create more frequent outcomes, though usually for smaller amounts.
Online slots, for instance, publish a Return To Player (RTP) percentage that indicates the long-term average portion returned to players across many spins. It is not a prediction for any one session. Some games also display a “hit rate,” which tells you how often any win might occur. In practice, small wins can appear quite regularly relative to a lottery jackpot, but the amounts tend to be modest.
In European roulette, a single-number bet has a 1 in 37 chance of success, while red or black is close to 1 in 2, with the single zero making the true probability slightly lower than even.
Scratchcards sit somewhere in between. Odds of “any prize” commonly range from about 1 in 3 to 1 in 5, but, as with slots, most outcomes at those frequencies are smaller returns. Each game lists its probabilities and prize structures so you can compare them directly.
These contrasts all come down to design choices. Lotteries concentrate value in rare top prizes, while many other games spread outcomes more evenly across frequent small wins.
Why Do Lottery Odds Differ Between Draws?
The structure of the draw sets the odds. Two factors matter most: how many numbers are in each pool, and how many correct picks are required for a prize.
UK Lotto uses six numbers from 59, with some prizes also involving a bonus ball. EuroMillions requires five numbers from 50 and two Lucky Stars from 12, which adds a second pool that must also be correct. When a game adds another pool or increases the numbers you must match, the number of possible combinations rises sharply, and the top-tier odds get longer.
Other games use smaller pools or fewer matches. Thunderball, for example, draws five numbers from 39 and one Thunderball from 14. That structure improves the probability of hitting a prize tier, though the top prize is lower to balance the game.
Special event draws and raffles can also alter the format, increase the number of prizes, or change how funds roll down to lower tiers. When formats change, the odds change with them, which is why it might be worth checking the rules of each draw rather than assuming they are the same as last week’s.
What Happens When Multiple People Win the Same Prize?
When more than one ticket qualifies for the same prize tier in a draw, the prize fund for that tier is shared. If the Lotto jackpot is £4 million and two tickets match all six main numbers, each receives £2 million. The same approach applies to other shared tiers.
Some prize levels are fixed. Matching three numbers on Lotto, for instance, pays a set cash amount to each winner, regardless of how many winners there are. The rules explain which tiers are fixed and which are funded from a shared pot.
There are also draw conditions that affect how money flows between tiers. If a jackpot rolls over and reaches a cap, or a “must be won” draw takes place, additional funds may move to lower tiers when no one wins the top prize. In those cases, players who match fewer numbers than usual can receive boosted payouts for that draw. The exact mechanics are set out in the game’s terms.
Online instant win games are different because each play is isolated. If you hit a listed prize, you are paid that amount, and your outcome does not affect anyone else.
Should You Play the Lottery?
Choosing to play the lottery is a personal decision. Many people enjoy the draw as a form of entertainment, recognising that outcomes are random and that significant prizes are rare.
Tickets for standard draws start at around £2, and a portion of sales supports projects across the UK alongside the prize fund. As with any game of chance, it is possible to spend money and not receive a return, so it might help to decide your budget in advance and stick to it. Some people join workplace or friends-and-family syndicates to share the cost and any returns.
Players should always remember to gamble responsibly and within their means- never wager more than you can afford to lose.
**The information provided in this blog is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as betting advice or a guarantee of success. Always gamble responsibly.
*All values (Bet Levels, Maximum Wins etc.) mentioned in relation to these games are subject to change at any time. Game features mentioned may not be available in some jurisdictions.